Development and demonstration of a probabilistic seismic resilience index considering the interaction between physical infrastructure sectors in a community
The recent history of seismic disasters, such as the 1985 Mexico City earthquake, the 2017 Puebla earthquake, and the 2023 Kahramanmaraş-Türkiye earthquake, revealed the underlying vulnerabilities of urban infrastructure networks and a concerning lack of community resilience in the face of such hazards. In response to these events, extensive investigations have been launched to dissect the vulnerabilities and seismic risks inherent in existing infrastructure systems. However, despite these efforts, significant deficiencies persist, hindering attempts to minimize the impact of earthquakes on infrastructure and, by extension, on overall community functioning and resilience. This is particularly evident when isolating the structural components that constitute a network of infrastructure systems.
Considering the constant exposure to natural hazards, such as large-magnitude earthquakes, as well as the clear vulnerability of critical infrastructure sectors, including buildings, transportation, and water distribution networks etc., this study postulates as a central hypothesis that community functionality and resilience can be evaluated comprehensively through a single index, which must intricately consider the interaction among diverse urban infrastructure sectors during the recovery phase. To address this, the study proposes employing advanced statistical methods such as Markov Chains for recovery modeling and Bayessian Networks to account for the interdependencies among infrastructure sectors.
The project introduces two significant and innovative advancements relative to the existing state of research:
establishing a probabilistic functionality resilience index for evaluating existing and new infrastructure by considering acceptable limits of repair times and recovery of functionality, and the interaction between different components and the communities dependent on its operation.
development of a holistic seismic design method based on local displacement control, damage distribution, dissipated energy, and seismic resilience. The focus will be on achieving greater structural resilience in terms of costs and loss of functionality by effectively controlling the distribution, damage intensity, and dissipation of energy.
The overall project objectives will be achieved through intensive collaboration and continuous cooperation between Mexican and German colleagues throughout all stages of development. This collaboration aims to promote knowledge exchange among all participants and ensure consistent results throughout the research process. Both partners will work jointly with different leading responsibilities to ensure the highest level of results and the best possible knowledge transfer. The project will further support extensive scientific exchange with a high impact on university education and will allow for the comparative study of different assessment and design philosophies on both sides.