Topic: Methods for Quantification of Coupling- and Prediction Quality of Coupled Partial Models

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Email: holger.keitel[at]


Goal of the research is the development of evaluation methods of coupled partial models, focussing on the combination of individual partial model qualities into a global quality measure. The definition of coupling quality of partial models, especially in case of strong interations, is a major step pf the reseach.

Variance-based sensitivity analysis in combination with the representation of coupled partial models using graph theory allows for the determination of the influence of classes of partial models on specific response quantities as well as the quantification of the influence of different coupling schemes on the total prognosis.

The application of the developed methods allows for the integration of the individual qualities of the partial models in order to calculate a total measure of prediction quality for the global model, which is composed of various partial models. The total quality measure is a result of the individual qualities of the partial models, their influences on the response quantities, and the quality of coupling.


H. Keitel, Bewertungsmethoden für die Prognosequalität von Kriechmodellen des Betons - Evaluation Methods for Prediction Quality of Concrete Creep Models, Bauhaus-Universität Weimar, Verlag der Bauhaus-Universität Weimar, 2011.

Publications in reviewed Journal:

H. Keitel, Quantifying Sources of Uncertainty for Creep Models under varying Stresses, Journal of Structural Engineering, accepted.

H. Keitel, A. Dimmig-Osburg, L. Vandewalle, L. Schueremans, Selecting creep models using Bayesian methods, Materials and Structures, 45: 1513-1533, 2012.

H. Keitel, G. Karaki, T. Lahmer, S. Nikulla, V. Zabel, Evaluation of coupled partial models in structural engineering using graph theory and sensitivity analysis, Engineering Structures, 33 (12): 3726-3736, 2011.

H.Keitel, A.Dimmig-Osburg, Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of creep models for uncorrelated and correlated input parameters, Engineering Structures, 32 (11): 3758-3767, 2010.

Conference papers and further publications:

H. Keitel, Selecting an Advanced Creep Model or a Sophisticated Time-Integration? A new Approach by means of Sensitivity Analysis, World Academy of Science: Engineering and Technology (Proceedings of the International Conference on Structural and Construction Engineering), 67, 564-571, 2012.

H. Keitel, Quantifying the Quality of Partial Model Coupling and its Effect on the Simulated Structural Behavior, 19th Int. Conf. on the Application of Computer Science and Mathematics in Architecture and Civil Engineering, Weimar, Germany, 2012.

H. Keitel, S. Nikulla, Traglastanalyse schlanker Stahlbetonstützen unter Kriechbeanspruchung, Bautechnik Sonderdruck, 88 (6): 53-59, 2011.

H.Keitel, A.Dimmig-Osburg, Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Creep Prediction Models in Concrete Structures, 8th fib international PhD Symposium in Civil Engineering, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark, 2010.

H. Keitel, A. Dimmig-Osburg, Prediction of Creep Deformation of PCC using models of standard concrete, ICPIC 2010 - 13th International Congress on Polymers in Concrete, Madeira, Portugal, 2010.

H. Keitel, A. Dimmig-Osburg, V. Zabel, Characterization of time-dependent Deformations of Polymer Modified Cement Concrete (PCC) , 18th Int. Conf. on the Application of Computer Science and Mathematics in Architecture and Civil Engineering, Weimar, Germany, 2009.